Q3 GDP, tracked to the release.
Real GDP growth at an annual rate. The headline tracker is the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, which updates after every major data release; beside it, our consumer-spending bridge shows how much of the quarter is already in hand from monthly PCE.
What 2026 Q2 told us
The last release against what was expected, what drove it, and what it changes.
The print
| First print | Now | Consensus | Model | Key Data call | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP, annualized | +1.5% | +2.20% | +2.1% | – | – | −0.6 pt |
What it showed
- Real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in 2026 Q2 (latest estimate; the advance print was 1.5% against a 2.1% consensus).
- Contributions: consumer spending +2.51 pt, business investment +1.35 pt, inventories −0.53 pt, net exports −1.10 pt, government −0.01 pt.
- The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracks 2026 Q3 at 3.5% (updated 2026-10-20); consumer spending alone points to about 3.6% growth in real PCE.
What added up to growth
Contribution to the annualized growth rate, percentage points.
Analyst notes
Q2 was revised up to 2.2% from a 1.5% advance estimate, led by consumer spending (+2.5 points) and business investment (+1.4 points), with net exports (−1.1) and inventories (−0.5) subtracting.
Q3 is tracking strong. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow puts third-quarter growth at 3.5% as of October 20, and monthly consumer spending through August is running near a 3.6% annual rate. The September retail control group was soft, so consumer spending could trim the estimate slightly when September PCE arrives the same morning as GDP.
Release day, October 29. The advance estimate and September PCE prices land together at 8:30 ET, so growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will be read side by side.
Where 2026 Q3 should land
Odds of each outcome, sized by the model's own recent misses with fat tails for surprise months. GDP is rounded to half a point here because a single tenth is far inside the error band.
Real GDP, annualized (GDPNow) model +3.50%
How the GDPNow estimate has moved
Each point is an update after a data release.
Track record
GDPNow's final call before each advance estimate, against the consensus and the number BEA first published.
| Period | Releases | Model miss | Key Data call miss | Consensus miss | Same half-point: model / call / consensus | Model closer / further | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023 | 14 | 0.61 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 43% / 21% / 21% | 10 / 4 | Model ahead |
| Since 2019 | 24 | 0.66 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 29% / 25% / 25% | 15 / 9 | Model ahead |
| Since 2014 | 43 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 28% / 33% / 33% | 21 / 22 | Even |
How it works
GDPNow (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) is a bottom-up model that mirrors BEA's methods for every GDP component. Since 2023 its final nowcast has been closer to the advance estimate than the median economist, so we use it as the primary call and credit it here.
Our bridge converts monthly real consumer spending for the months already published, extended with the retail control group, into an annualized quarterly rate. Consumer spending is about two-thirds of GDP and usually decides whether the quarter is strong or weak.